股票交易部—本週推薦股票TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM)

1. Investment Category

Type: Global leader in semiconductor foundry (wafer fabrication)

Core Themes: AI and high-performance computing chip manufacturing, supply chain diversification, geographic expansion


2. Fundamentals Overview

Strong revenue growth: Q1 2025 revenue rose 39–42% YoY, with steady month-on-month gains; April revenue climbed 22.2% over March, up 48% YoY.

Outstanding profitability: Q1 net profit surged 57% YoY to nearly NT$361.6 billion (~$11.2 billion USD), marking record-level profitability.

AI demand boost: Advanced 5nm/3nm processes accounted for 73% of revenue, strongly supported by AI chip demand.

CapEx expansion outlook: 2025 capital expenditures planned at $38–42 billion, mainly for new facilities in the U.S., Japan, Germany, and Taiwan. This is expected to create short-term gross margin pressure of 2–3%.

Trade and geopolitical risks: Uncertainty remains around U.S.-Taiwan tariffs and related policies. While customer behavior hasn’t been significantly affected so far, market volatility has increased in the short term.


3. Price Action & Fund Flows

March – Pre-earnings pullback:
Before the Q1 earnings release, macro, geopolitical, and trade concerns led to a pullback to the $210–215 range, with the stock consolidating in a short-term holding pattern.

April – Earnings-driven rebound:
On April 17, TSM reported Q1 EPS of $2.12 (beating estimates) and revenue of $25.5 billion (+39% YoY), reaffirming its full-year “mid-teens percentage growth” guidance.
This triggered a short-term price rally of about 3–5%, reflecting renewed buying interest.

4. Strategy Recommendations

✅ Summary

TSM experienced a pullback in March but rebounded in April on strong earnings and AI-driven demand. The stock has since entered a consolidation phase.
Fundamentals remain solid, supported by sustained AI-related demand. While CapEx expansion weighs on near-term margins, it strengthens TSM’s global footprint and supply chain security over the long run.

Market strategy: Build positions on dips at key support levels and add on confirmation of a breakout from the current consolidation. Watch for tariff, geopolitical, and equipment order trends that could impact the sector.