As China’s economy sputters, investors are asking whether the country could repeat Japan’s experience in the 1990s. Goldman Sachs Research finds that even though there are some key similarities between the two situations, China’s “Japanification” is far from certain. While deteriorating demographics, a debt overhang, and an asset-bubble-burst were all important ingredients to Japan’s malaise at the

The world’s largest economy is forecast to outperform economist expectations again next year, according to Goldman Sachs Research. “The US economy is in a good place,” writes David Mericle, chief US economist in Goldman Sachs Research. “Recession fears have diminished, inflation is trending back toward 2%, and the labor market has rebalanced but remains strong.” Goldman Sachs

The German economy is going through a challenging period. GDP growth has fallen behind the rest of Europe and the US in recent years amid high energy prices and weakness in China, a vital trading partner. But there are signs that some headwinds facing Germany industry may begin to abate. These were among the topics

The growth in women’s contributions to the labor force in recent decades is difficult to overstate, and it’s transforming economies around the world. But much remains to be done. Goldman Sachs Research first published a report on women\’s participation in the labor force, and the economic possibilities opened up by greater participation, in 1999. The report was

The likelihood of a US recession in the coming year has declined amid signs of a still-solid job market, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Our economists say there’s a 15% chance of recession in the next 12 months, down from their earlier projection of 20%. That’s in line with the unconditional long-term average probability of 15%, writes

The UK’s 5.5 million small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) could be an answer to revving up the UK economy and reversing more than a decade of stalled productivity. A survey of UK small business owners who participated in the Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses (10KSB) program helps to lay out their views and asks on government policies,

India’s real GDP is expected to grow at more than 6% every year between 2023 and 2028, according to Goldman Sachs Research. In tandem, the wealth of affluent Indians is rapidly growing as well. By 2027, according to a report titled “The rise of ‘Affluent India’” by Goldman Sachs Research, this cohort of affluent consumers

US consumer spending is showing signs of slowing. But that’s more of a return to normal than an indication that a downturn is looming, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Some recent consumption data has appeared soft. Real personal consumption expenditure rose 2.6% in April from the same month a year ago, compared with a pace

The US economy may expand more slowly than previously forecast as tariffs on imports rise and the Trump administration signals that it may tolerate slower growth in order to implement its trade policies, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Our economists reduced their prediction for US GDP expansion to 1.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (year over year)

The economic growth outlook is improving in Germany — and in Europe as a whole — amid a fiscal plan that emerged after Germany’s federal election and the prospect of higher military spending across the region, according to Goldman Sachs Research. German voters in late February put Friedrich Merz in line to become Chancellor and gave his Christian Democratic

Recent policy announcements in China highlight new government efforts to raise birth rates. For investors, this suggests an improving outlook among dairy and infant formula companies that have sales in China, according to Goldman Sachs Research. It also creates a positive storyline for companies outside Asia that make ingredients for infant nutrition. The policy developments

UK government bond yields have risen amid investor concern about the government’s fiscal outlook and sticky inflation. Even so, Goldman Sachs Research projects the country’s borrowing costs will decline by the end of the year as the Bank of England cuts its policy rate. “We still think the UK data will justify more cuts than the market is

China’s economy is projected by Goldman Sachs Research to grow at a slower pace in 2025, as the government’s stimulus efforts partially offset the impact of potential tariffs from the US. Real GDP growth is predicted to decelerate to 4.5% next year from 4.9% in 2024. Goldman Sachs Research’s forecast assumes a 20 percentage-point increase in the effective tariff

Defense spending by European Union member states is set to increase significantly in the next two years. The shift will have a positive — but limited — impact on GDP growth, Goldman Sachs Research economists Niklas Garnadt and Filippo Taddei write in a report. The team’s baseline assumption is that the EU will gradually increase its annual defense

Goldman Sachs Research forecasts another solid year of global economic growth in 2025. Our economists project the US will outperform expectations while the euro area lags behind amid fresh tariffs that are anticipated from the Trump administration. Worldwide GDP is forecast to expand 2.7% next year on an annual average basis, just above the consensus forecast of

Goldman Sachs Research expects continued growth from the UK economy in 2025, although its expansion may be slower than some economists anticipate. Our economists forecast the UK’s GDP to increase 1.2% in 2025, which is slower than the Bank of England’s projection of 1.5% and just below the consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg

Germany’s economy, which has lagged behind its peers in recent years, faces a series of headwinds in 2025, including trade uncertainty with the US, still-high energy prices, and growing competition from China. Elections in February will provide an opportunity to tackle the country’s challenges. Europe’s largest economy is forecast to expand 0.3% in 2025, which is slower than

The US has had the world’s largest economy for more than a century — a title it’s expected to relinquish in the coming decades. But even as US GDP is forecast to be surpassed in the years ahead, the country is projected to remain world leading when it comes to wealth and the size of its stock market, according to Goldman