Stock Trading Department—This week’s recommended stocks LLY

Eli Lilly & Co (LLY)

Eli Lilly is a global leader in innovative pharmaceuticals, focusing on treatments for diabetes, obesity, Alzheimer’s disease, autoimmune disorders, cancer, and other major diseases. The company is revolutionizing diabetes and obesity treatment with its GLP-1 class drugs (such as Mounjaro and Zepbound), and it represents one of the most closely watched growth stories in the global healthcare sector. Lilly has an extensive clinical trial network and long-term partnerships with academic medical centers.

Asset Type: Large-cap U.S. pharmaceutical leader

Core Areas: GLP-1 diabetes and weight loss drugs (Mounjaro, Zepbound), chronic disease and obesity treatments

Investment Style: Growth + Defensive — high-growth innovative drug portfolio combined with stable cash flow

1. Fundamental Drivers

Performance of Key Drugs

GLP-1: Mounjaro (for diabetes + weight loss) and Zepbound (for weight loss) generated total Q4 2024 sales exceeding $39.6 billion, driving quarterly revenue growth of about 45%.

Seasonality: After a surge in prescriptions early January (post-holiday peak), demand is expected to ease during the typical seasonal slowdown.

Guidance and Financial Updates

Full-year 2025 revenue guidance raised slightly to $58–61 billion, above prior forecasts.

2025 EPS guidance revised upward to $22.50–24.00, ahead of expectations, although Q1 profit was slightly lowered due to higher R&D and investment spending.

Innovation & M&A Developments

In March, Lilly completed the acquisition of Organovo’s FXR program, expanding its pipeline for gut/IBD therapies.

The advancement of this new pipeline enhances mid- to long-term growth prospects, serving as a catalyst for further value creation.

2. Trend Structure Breakdown

February–March: Earnings-driven rally

After reporting strong Q4 results in early February, the market reacted positively to the revenue/EPS beat and upward full-year guidance.

The stock gained about 3% on earnings day, then continued to trend higher, consolidating near its late-February highs.

The stock has been trading in a $780–$800 consolidation range, offering opportunities for staged buying on dips. With supportive volume, this could mark the start of a new upward trend suitable for medium- to long-term positioning.

3. Technicals & Fund Flow

✅ Summary Assessment

Strong fundamentals: Robust sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound, combined with raised revenue guidance, underpin solid earnings momentum.

Clear trend rotation: February’s earnings surge fueled the rally, followed by a technical pullback in March after profit guidance was lowered, while the M&A news helped stabilize the stock.

Best positioning strategy: Focus on medium-term accumulation, buying on dips, and adding ahead of key catalysts. Monitor whether the stock can decisively break the $800 level to confirm the trend.

Hedging strategy: Consider pairing with defensive assets like Treasury ETFs to balance pharma sector volatility.